F-gas quota 2027: how to prepare your business for the next quota cut

The European F-gas Regulation (EU) 2024/573 relentlessly continues the quota system that began in 2015: every few years the quantity of high-GWP refrigerant that manufacturers and importers may place on the EU market is reduced further. 2027-2029 is a key period: the quota falls to roughly 12% of the 2015 baseline, against roughly 24% in 2025-2026 — nearly a halving. For installers that has direct consequences — in price, in availability, and in which installations you will still be able to maintain five years from now.

Quick recap: what is the quota system?

Since 2015 the EU has had a shared quota for F-gases, measured in tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. Every manufacturer or importer receives a share of that quota, and may place high-GWP refrigerants on the market within it. When the quota goes down:

• Manufacturers can supply less of popular refrigerants such as R-410A (GWP 2088) and R-404A (GWP 3922).
• Prices rise — sometimes dramatically. R-410A has already doubled or more several times over 2022-2024.
• Low-GWP alternatives (R-32 GWP 675, R-454B GWP 466, R-1234yf GWP 4) take priority.

The 2027 quota cut

The quota path is fixed in Annex VII of (EU) 2024/573, expressed as a percentage of the 2015 baseline:

| Period | % vs 2015 baseline | Indicative tonnes CO₂-eq | |---|---|---| | 2025-2026 | ≈ 24% | ≈ 42.9M | | 2027-2029 | ≈ 12% | ≈ 21.7M | | 2030-2032 | ≈ 5% | ≈ 9.1M |

2027 is therefore the next big step down. After that comes an even larger cut towards 2030-2032 — but most installation companies will feel the pain of 2027 first.

What does this mean concretely for your business?

### 1. R-410A installations become (more) expensive to maintain

Anyone still managing R-410A installations knows that 1 kg of R-410A already costs around €60-80 (it was €15-25 in 2018). In 2027 that price will rise further — not through scarcity, but through quota pressure. Plan maintenance and leak checks more tightly; avoid unexpected large top-ups.

### 2. New installations: low GWP becomes the norm

For new build this is already the reality — R-32 is the de facto standard for split units. For commercial installations (supermarkets, refrigerated transport) the move to R-454B, R-455A or CO₂ (R-744) becomes unavoidable.

### 3. Technical knowledge broadens

Installers who only have experience with R-410A and R-404A will need additional training. R-32 is more flammable (class A2L); CO₂ systems operate at much higher pressures. The NVKL (the Dutch trade association for refrigeration and air conditioning) regularly offers refresher courses — book those now, not once the workload is high.

### 4. Stock management becomes strategic

Some companies try to build up refrigerant stock before the cut. That is possible, but:

• Cylinders have an expiry date (typically 10 years).
• Stock above statutory safety limits requires additional permits.
• Quota pressure works on traders too — they ask for prepayment or "first refusal" for the scarce years.

Practical preparation — 6 actions

1. Take stock of your installation portfolio by refrigerant type.

Our installation management module can show this in one click: how many installations you have per type, total weight per type, average GWP. Without that overview, planning is guesswork.

2. Identify "risk installations".

These are installations with high-GWP refrigerant that have to keep running for 5+ years. For every risk installation: make a plan ("retrofit to R-32 in 2028", "replace before 2029", "phase out early").

3. Strengthen your refrigerant balance.

With rising prices every kilogram that "goes missing" gets more expensive. A balance that adds up is no longer a luxury — it is a direct return-on-investment instrument. The refrigerant module warns on any discrepancy greater than 0.01 kg.

4. Build up leak history per installation.

Installations with repeated leaks are a double loss in 2027 (replacement cost plus penalty). Start pattern detection now: which installations leak most often, and which brand, type or installation location correlates.

5. Plan installer training.

R-32 = class A2L = new brazing protocol + different pipe selection + different leak detection. Make sure 100% of your installers are A2L-trained before Q1 2027.

6. Start conversations with your wholesaler about supply guarantees.

Not about discount — about availability. Which alternative refrigerants can you already guarantee through a single supplier, and what are the price tiers? Locking that in through 2028 avoids surprises.

What are we doing at Koldwerk?

For the 2027 transition period we have three features in the pipeline:

• GWP projection report. Per installation, the total CO₂-eq load and what it would be after a retrofit. To be honest: this is a feature already in daily use, but not yet switched on for the wider public.
• Quota-aware ordering. Integrated with Debitan, so orders are automatically checked against your forecast usage.
• Migration planning. Per installation a recommended retrofit year given current age, refrigerant and EU cuts.

Everyone who signs up gets these features automatically once they go live — no extra cost, no upsell.

Disclaimer: quota figures are derived from (EU) 2024/573 Annex VII. Price development is a trend extrapolation from publicly known market data; actual prices vary per supplier and region. Not purchasing advice.